1Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi
2Department of Civil Engineering, Aligarh Muslim University (AMU), Aligarh, 202002, Uttar Pradesh, India
Online Published on 6 May, 2024.
The present study utilizes time series solar radiation data for 34 years (i.e., January 1984 to December 2017) from NASA’s POWER project to perform a spatial assessment and simulation of solar radiation in and around New Delhi, India. Solar radiation forecasting was accomplished on a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial extent utilizing two approaches: the ARIMA models and the GIS-based solar radiation spatial analyst tools in ArcGIS. The solar radiation estimates from the two approaches were validated using WRMC-BSRN (World radiation monitoring center - Baseline surface radiation network) data. Solar radiation estimates obtained from the two approaches when compared with the actual ground measured data, revealed that ARIMA model estimated solar radiation with higher accuracy in terms of R2 value as 0.9108, whereas ArcGIS solar analyst-based estimates yielded R2 value of 0.6408. The study presents the applicability of ARIMA models-in the prediction of solar radiation and highlight their potential in the design and functioning of energy systems.
ARIMA model, ArcGIS Solar Analyst, NASA POWER, Spatial Insolation, Forecasting
