Forcasting models for predicting future arrival of international tourists in India

This paper deals with predicting the arrival of Tourists of Foreign Nations (TFNs) in India by adopting time series statistical tools. For the current study, data of annual arrival of TFNs is taken for the period of 1981 to 2012. Different Exponential smoothing tools and ARIMA models were taken into the consideration for the purpose of analysing the data and predicting the figures of future arrival of TFNs in India. Among the several models and tools best model were carved out by using the criteria like MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). With the help of these criteria, ARIMA (with first level of deference and first level of moving average) model was selected as appropriate predicting model. This model may helpful to forecast the arrival of TFNs in upcoming years.