Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management
  • Year: 2013
  • Volume: 3
  • Issue: 8

Forecasting of rice exports from Punjab – An application of arima model

  • Author:
  • Gurpreet Kaur, Jasdeep Kaur Dham
  • Total Page Count: 13
  • Page Number: 152 to 164

*Research Student, Faculty of Business and Applied Arts, School of Commerce and Economics, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, Punjab, India

**Faculty of Business and Applied Arts, AP School of Commerce and Economics, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, Punjab, India

Online published on 9 August, 2013.

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to forecast rice exports from Punjab with the help of ARIMA model. Data analyzed in this paper is yearly exports from Punjab in Rupees Crore from 1996–97 till 2009–2010. Punjab can export goods worth 6172.92 Rupees Crore in 2019–20. Thus, based on Punjab's actual exports, there exists a scope for her exports in future. Therefore, efforts at the international level are required to be made to increase the exports to earn a fair name for Punjab in the world trade. Punjab is basically an agriculture economy and the potential can be utilized.

Keywords

ARIMA, Forecasting, Exports, Rice, International Trade