Simulation of spot blotch in Wheat under elevated temperature

Effect of elevated temperature on spot blotch (Bipolaris sorokiniana) disease in wheat was studied in relation to change in favourable hours and rate of incubation period completion throughout Indo-Gangetic plains. For spot blotch, rate of incubation period completion was described as a linear increase in rate with temperature up to approximately 29°C, then an exponential decline with temperature up to the maximum temperature of approximately 36°C in which disease development checked. Rate of one incubation period completed per hour was modeled as (0.002T –0.03) {– exp [0.151(T – 36)]}. Based on favorable hours and rate of incubation period, spot blotch infection was simulated under ambient as well as elevated temperature levels (+1.5°C) throughout Indo-Gangetic plains. Under climate change scenario, rise in temperature due to climate change was likely to increase favorable hours and rate of pathogen development in February than March and western region was shown to have maximum vulnerability to the disease. Under controlled chamber elevated temperature (+1–3°C) increased spot blotch severity.