1Deptt. of Social Sciences, Agricultural College & Research Institute, Killikulam
Deptt. Agricultural Economics, Centre for Agricultural & Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore
Online published on 23 October, 2017.
The present study aims to quantify the impact of price forecast on income of maize farmers in Tamil Nadu. During May 2013, maize was sold at Rs.1360 per Quintal and price forecasts revealed a price increase during June-August 2013. Hence farmers were advised to store and sell maize. The time series data used were 25 years of Udumalpet market price, a major market for maize in Tamil Nadu. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) was used to predict the price of maize in Tamil Nadu. Model selection was based on Minimum Absolute Percentage Error criterion. ARIMA (111) was selected as the best fit model. The difference between actual and predicted price is compared and the results revealed 98 per cent accuracy in the forecasted price. Hence, the maize farmers were advised to store and sell the produce since there were chances for price increase. The impact of price forecast was analyzed through a survey of respondents who received market intelligence and planned accordingly their sowing and marketing decisions and the results showed that adopted farmers got higher income than non-adopted farmers. Farmers who stored for a longer period were able to realise the maximum prices as per the price forecast advisories. Average gain per quintal was Rs.132and Rs.5295 per ha additionally by following store and sell advisory of DEMIC.
