Price forecast of groundnut in selected markets of Rajasthan

In the present investigation, different forecasting models were considered to price forecast and to measure the forecast accuracy among selected models. Price of groundnut was forecasted using various models and compared with the actual price. The best model was chosen on the basis of least values of AIC, IBC and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). From the various forms of ARIMA, and Exponential Smoothing Models; on comparing the alternative models with criteria. Therefore, ARIMA (2, 1, 2) for Bikaner, ARIMA(0, 1, 1) for Churu and ARIMA(2, 1, 0) model for Sri ganganagr market was considered the most suitable model for the price forecasting of groundnut in Rajasthan. This model can be useful in framing the various policies related to the benefits of the producers and sellers. Agricultural price information needs for decision-making at all levels are increasing due to globalization and market integration. to provide accurate and timely price forecast by taking into account the local information to the farmers, traders and policy makers so that they can make production, marketing and policy decisions well in advance. The decision support system should provide customized advice to individual farmers in view of their local conditions.