Forecasting the Growth Trajectory of Kinnow in Punjab: Trends and Economic Implications

Punjab, as India’s foremost producer of kinnow, is witnessing a significant shift towards cultivating this citrus fruit as a viable alternative crop. Using the Box-Jenkins approach, this study forecasts key agricultural metrics-yield, production area, and productivity-of kinnow rom 2022-23 to 2030-31. The findings project a robust growth trajectory, with the cultivation area expected to increase from 46.26 to 59.57 thousand hectares over the forecast period. Concurrently, kinnow production is expected to rise from 12.16 lakh metric tons to 16.37 lakh metric tons, representing a 34.62 per cent increase. Economically, the expansion of kinnow cultivation promises to bolster farmer incomes and stimulate rural economies in a few pockets of Punjab. Initiatives like Punjab Agro Juices Ltd., with its processing units in Hoshiarpur and Abohar, underscore efforts towards value addition and market integration. However, challenges such as climatic variability and market fluctuations necessitate strengthened infrastructure, particularly in cold chain logistics and market access, to sustain growth and profitability in kinnow farming. Southern India is a crucial market for Punjab’s kinnow, shaping pricing dynamics and export strategies. Despite recent market setbacks like increased customs duties in key export destinations in 2024, opportunities remain ripe for expanding kinnow exports to new international markets. This study has highlighted the potential of kinnow to drive agricultural diversification and economic resilience in Punjab in the wake of its forecasted growth. By leveraging technological advancements and addressing infrastructural gaps, Punjab can solidify its position as a leading kinnow producer, ensuring sustainable agricultural growth and socio-economic benefits for rural communities.