Analysis of climate parameters trend over long time horizons and their probable impacts in the beas basin, H.P., India

The present study aims at investigating the climate parameters trends over long time horizons and their probable impacts in the ecology of Beas basin, Himachal Pradesh (H.P), India. In this study, large scale climate variables are downscaled to local scale meteorological variables. For large scale atmospheric modeling, HaDCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) is used and downscaling is accomplished through SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model). To detect monotonic trends and their magnitudes Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope test were employed. The study used a 100-years based period data (1901–2001) for A2 (medium to high emission) and B2 (medium to low emission) climate scenarios then an incremental scenarios over wide range climate variables for 2020s (2011- 2040), 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100) were estimated. The important climate variables over the Beas basin considered for the assessment includes precipitations (PPT), maximum temperature (T-max) and minimum temperature (T-min) that covered four locales/districts -Hamirpur, Kullu, Kangra and Mandi of H.P, India. The paper ends with the concluding remarks with future impending trends and their probable impacts.