Benefits of price forecast to cumin growers in Gujarat

The present study was undertaken to analyze the impact of price forecasts of cumin released by Market Intelligence Centre of Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh in crop year 2015–16. Monthly time series data on wholesale prices of cumin for the period January, 1991 to January, 2016 were obtained from Unjha regulated market and used for price forecast. Various time series models were applied to analyze the data. ARIMA (0,1,1) model was found the best fitted model with lowest MAPE value and hence price was forecasted using this model. Finally a market advisory was prepared and released through different mass media like news papers, voice SMS, farmers trainings and university website. To study the impact assessment of price forecast, all the 30 targeted farmers, who attended the training conducted by Market Intelligence Centre of JAU, Junagadh, were aware with price forecast and adopted the price forecast suggestions. Further 30 non-targeted farmers selected were those who were not participants of the training programme. The price forecasted for months from February to April, 2016 was Rs. 12500 to 14000 per quintal and farmers were suggested to store cumin and sell after April 2016. On an average 3.38 ha area was operated under cumin by sample farmers. Average price received by the sample farmers during March-April 2016 was Rs. 11836.55 per quintal, where as the price of stored quantity of cumin realized by the sample farmers according to advice given by AMIC, JAU, Junagadh was Rs. 13473.25 per quintal after April 2016. Thus, an incremental income realized to the extent of Rs. 30505.27 per hectare by the farmers who sold their produce after April 2016.