Stochastic modeling of weekly water deficit for crop planning in Varanasi region

A stochastic model for weekly water deficit series has been developed under climatic conditions of Varanasi. The turning point test and Kendall's rank correlation test were applied for detecting the trend. Correlogram technique was used to detect the periodicity, which was then analyzed by Fourier series method. Significant harmonics were also identified. Statistical properties of the generated water deficit series were compared with the observed series. The developed model was validated by predicting for next two years and compared with the observed water deficit series. Test results indicated high degree of model fitness, which may be used for representing time-based structure of the water deficit time series at Varanasi.