Indian Journal of Soil Conservation

The study aimed impact assessment of climate change through CROPGRO and CERES model for Tarai region of Uttrakhand. CERES and CROPGRO models v4.5 were used in this study for assessment of climate change. The results revealed that the CERES and CROPGRO models satisfactorily simulated the temperature, solar radaiation and CO₂ concentration effects on yield. Increase in solar radiation from 1 to 2 MJ m"² day"¹ for black gram showed decrease in yield by 12 to 15% with root mean square error (RMSE) (222.46), mean bias error (MBE) (−220.50) and percent error (PE) (14.04) while decrease in solar radiation by 1 to 2 MJ m" day showed gradual increase in yield by 1 to 18% of black gram with RMSE (211.02), MBE (+157.00) and PE (13.32). Simulated grain yield of black gram by CROPGRO model under augmented unit of maximum temperature (+1 to +3°C) demonstrated continuous decrease in yield ranging from 1378 to 860 kg ha (13 to 45%). Similarly, under declined units of maximum temperature (−1 to-2 C), showed gradual increase in yield ranging from 1650 to 1682 kg ha (4.17 to 19%). Enhancement in CO₂levels showed gradual increase in yield by 1803 to 2083 kg ha", even though decrease in CO₂ level by-120 ppm the yield decreased by 28% for black gram crop. CERES model results exposed that increase in solar radiation from 1 to 2 MJ m" day corroborate increase in yield with RMSE (163.94), MBE (+157.00) and PE (4.14) while, decrease in solar radiation by 1 to 2 MJ m" day showed gradual decline in wheat yield with RMSE (607.14), MBE (+157.00) and PE (4.14). Decrease in CO₂ level by-120 ppm from base, the simulated yield was decreased by 28% for wheat crop with RMSE (1129.00), MBE (−1129.00) and PE (28.50).