*Statistician, Postgraduate Institute for Medical Research & Education, Chandigarh, India
**Research Scholar, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai
Online published on 13 November, 2017.
India is the second largest populated country of the world. It is projected that India will become the world's largest country in population, surpassing China, before 2030. However, demographers and researchers have shown interest in knowing the trends of future fertility levels of the country. In addition, the present study has used Bayesian hierarchical model approach to project the future fertility of major states of India, up to the 21st century. The study used R statistical software package bayes TFR to estimate the future fertility. Total fertility rate data has been used from the Sample Registration System (SRS) of major states of India from 1970 to 2010. The study findings revealed that there are certain states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which will achieve 2.1 TFR in the year 2050 whereas some states such as Tamil Nadu, Keralaand Punjab will reach1.7 TFR in 2050. This study provides projection trends of fertility rates of major states of India, which can help to make policy to understand the future fertility of major states of India.
