Department of Economics and Sociology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141004
JEL Classification: F17, Q17
India is the world's largest producer and leading exporter of basmati rice to the global market. Basmati rice is contributing considerable shore in the export earnings of total agricultural products; the export of basmati rice has increased from Rs. 162.47 crores in 1980–81 to Rs. 19409.38 crores in 2012–13. This was mainly due to high demand of Indian basmati rice in international markets. An attempt was made to examine the growth performance of basmati rice over the period of 1980–81 to 2012–13, and to identify the major markets for basmati rice, using compound growth rate and Markov chain analysis through linear programming methods. The growth in quantity, value and unit value realization indicated a positive and significant trend for basmati rice export during the study period. It is also revealed that growth rate of quantity and export earnings during 1995–96 to 2012–13 was higher as compare to 1980–81 to 1994–95. The results also indicated that unit value of export were found to be stable than quantity and export earnings. The results of Markov chain analysis showed, that UAE is the most stable market of basmati rice followed by Saudi Arabia and Iran. While, that of Iraq is unstable. It was estimated that during 2013–14 the major markets for Indian basmati rice would be Iran (30.64%), Saudi Arabia (25.68%) and others (21.75%). Efforts are needed to improve, production in order to meet future demand of importing countries and quality to make consumer assure about the product. Therefore, suitable export promotion strategies have to be executed by the government and policy maker to identify potential and reliable markets for basmati rice in specific and toJmprove basmati rice exports in general.
Basmati rice, export, Instability and Markov chain analysis, India