Analyzing the direction of trade: Indian ginger and lessons from exports to different destinations

The study analyzes the scenario of ginger exports with special emphasis on direction of ginger trade from the country by making use of the Markov chain model, the data for which have been collected from various-published sources. India being the one of the major producers of ginger has witnessed significant increase in-share of ginger export to total spices export from 0.98 per cent in 2000-01 to 8.03 per cent in 2020-21 due to increase in crop production. UK and the “Others” category have emerged as the most stable destinations for Indian ginger and Bangladesh being the most unstable with zero per cent transitional probability. Projected export shares of ginger to major importing countries for the next four years has shown an increasing trend in Bangladesh, Saudi Arab and rest of other countries. Hence, proper investment can aid in stabilizing the existing markets and further tapping other international markets.