Dynamics of Indian vegetables trade with South-Asia: Growth, composition and direction

The present study was conducted to analyze the trend, compositional changes and direction of Indian vegetables (based on Harmonized systems code) trade with South Asian countries during the period 2002 to 2021. The Secondary data were gathered from various sources to meet the stipulated objectives of the study. Tri-annum ending averages were used to decrease the fluctuations in the data. The results of the study revealed that India's export performance of vegetables with South Asian countries was increasing with a positive trend except for Pakistan which was decreasing at a compound annual rate of 7.94 per cent per annum due to tense relations and lack of political will between two countries. The instability analysis indicated that India's export of vegetables was highly unstable with Bhutan and Afghanistan in contrast to Maldives and Nepal for which the export of vegetables was found more stable. Overall, India's export of vegetables to South Asia was significantly increasing at a compound annual growth rate of 5.06 per cent during the study period. The results of Markov chain analysis depicted that Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan had the most stable export market for India's vegetables with market retention probabilities of 98.12, 87.34, and 90.96 per cent respectively while Bhutan would be considered as unstable importer as it could not retain its original share. From the various literature reviewed, it is found that, para-tariff barriers, protectionist policies, disproportionate high cost of trade, lack of political will and trust deficits were the major impediments to trade with South Asia. Therefore, India should focus on improving its mutual relation with all South-Asian countries to get more foreign exchange. The potential and benefit of trade must be realized by countries in the region to ensure mutual economic gains.