Growth and Instability in Area, Production, and Productivity of Major Seed Spices in Gujarat: A Comparative Analysis Across NHM Phases

The present study examines growth and instability in the area, production, and productivity of major seed spices in Gujarat over a period of three decades, from 1994–95 to 2024–25. For analytical purposes, the study period was divided into three phases: pre-NHM (1994-95 to 2004–05), NHM (2005-06 to 2015–16), andpost-NHM (2016-17 to 2024–25), to assess changes in performance across policy regimes associated with the National Horticulture Mission (NHM). Compound annual growth rates were estimated using a log-linear regression model, while instability was measured using the Cuddy-Della Valle Index. The results indicate a significant expansion in area under seed spice cultivation across crops, with annual growth of 5.21 per cent for cumin, 5.45 per cent for fennel, and 17.61 per cent for coriander. Coriander recorded the highest growth, while cumin and fennel exhibited relatively steady and consistent expansion. Productivity growth was moderate, suggesting scope for further technical improvement and more efficient input use. The instability analysis reveals moderate variability in area and production, whereas productivity exhibited notable stabilization in the post-NHM period. Among the crops, fennel and coriander recorded the highest production instability, at 17.32 per cent and 17.00 per cent, respectively, while cumin emerged as the most stable crop in terms of area, production, and productivity.