Climate Projections for Punjab: Future Trends in Temperature, Solar Radiation, and Rainfall

The study analyzed bias-corrected meteorological data based on the ensemble mean of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Its objective was to assess average changes in key meteorological parameters for the mid-century (2020-2049) and end-century (2066-2095) periods on an annual basis, as well as during the kharif and rabi seasons, across four agroclimatic zones (AZ) of Punjab: AZ II (Ballowal Saunkhri), AZ III (Ludhiana, Amritsar, Patiala), AZ IV (Bathinda), and AZ V (Abohar, Faridkot). The analysis revealed increases in minimum and maximum temperatures ranging from 0.3°C to 7.5°C and 0.1°C to 4.6°C, respectively, with the most pronounced changes occurring toward the end of the century under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). The increase in minimum temperatures was greater than that of maximum temperatures, suggesting a reduction in the diurnal temperature range by approximately 2.5°C to 2.9°C during the mid and late 21^st century. These projections indicate that Punjab's future climate may become hotter, drier, and cloudier. Such conditions are expected to increase crop water requirements and could adversely affect agricultural productivity.