Unveiling the Effects of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Hilly Region of Assam: An Econometric Analysis Using Panel Data

Climate change exerts growing pressure on agricultural systems worldwide, significantly impacting crop yields and their variability. This study employs the Just-Pope production function as a theoretical framework to analyse the effects of climate change on the mean and variability of crop yields across two districts of Assam, India, located in the hill region. The study covers a period from 1981–2022. The analysis focuses on the influence of key climate variables including rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, humidity and wind speeds on the mean yield of nine major crops. In addition, agricultural factors such as cropping area, fertilizer usage and net sown area are examined for their roles in shaping crop performance. Empirical findings reveal substantial variability in the impacts of climate factors across different crops. For instance, rainfall negatively affects the mean yield of Autumn Rice (AR), while maximum temperature has a positive effect and minimum temperature exerts a negative influence. For Summer Rice (SR), maximum temperature and wind speed positively impact yield, although the quadratic model indicates diverse effects on associated risk factors. The yields of potatoes and sugarcane demonstrate differing sensitivities to temperature, humidity and wind speed. Overall, the analysis highlights that the effects of climate variables, particularly temperature and rainfall vary significantly by crop and modelling approach with both positive and negative outcomes observed. These findings emphasize the limitations of generalized, national-level adaptation strategies and highlight the need for localized, context-specific research to inform micro-level adaptation policies aimed at mitigating yield variability. The study concludes by advocating for the integration of climate-resilient agricultural practices and adaptive management strategies to ensure sustainable crop productivity in the Himalayan foothills of Assam.