Simulation of Maize Phenology and Yield Under Changing Environments in North-Eastern Punjab

To assess climate change impacts on maize crop, a study was conducted at Regional Research Station, Ballowal Saunkhri using CERES-Maize model (DSSAT v 4.7). Two cultivars, JC-4 and PMH-13, were tested under increased maximum temperatures (+1°C to +3°C) during vegetative, flowering and reproductive stages. The flowering stage showed the highest sensitivity, reducing days to anthesis by 1 day and maturity by 1–3 days (JC-4) and 1–2 days (PMH-13). The grain yield declined by 6–22.1% for JC-4 and 14.8-34.1% for PMH-13, while biomass yield by 5.3-15.7% and 13.6-25.8%, respectively. Simulations also identified optimal sowing windows to minimize yield losses. The cultivar JC-4 benefited from both early sowing (May 14–20) and delayed sowing (June 16-July 10) during both vegetative and flowering stage, while PMH-13 showed improved outcomes with delayed sowing (June 19-July 19) for vegetative and June 16-July 22 for flowering stage. Finally, in the reproductive stage, optimal sowing for JC-4 was either May 11–20 or June 16-July 19, while PMH-13 favoured delayed sowing between June 13 and July 22.