Long-Term Historical and Projected Heat and Cold Wave Patterns in Wheat and Cotton Cropping Seasons of Bathinda, Punjab

Extreme temperature events, such as heat and cold waves, pose significant challenges to agricultural productivity in semi-arid regions like Bathinda, Punjab. This study analyzes the variability of heat and cold waves during the wheat (October-April) and cotton (April-October) growing seasons from 2000 to 2022, with future projections extending to 2050. Historical data revealed significant variability in heat wave occurrences during wheat seasons, with prolonged events in 2003–04, 2009–10, 2015–16 and 2021–22. While 2007–08 wheat growing season witnessed highest cold wave days, the results showed considerable differences in observed heat wave days in cotton growing seasons. Cotton seasons showed elevated heat wave occurrences in 2022 compared to 2004. Future projections indicate increased heat wave frequencies in critical wheat months with the highest recorded during the 2039–40 period. Most of the wheat growing periods projected with higher frequency of heat wave days that is above 15 and ranging up to 30 days. On the other hand, cotton faces particularly increasing heat wave frequencies in 2032–40. These trends threaten crop yields, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies like heat-tolerant varieties and improved irrigation to ensure agricultural resilience in Punjab.